Saturday, March 10, 2012

Like Stevie Wonder - I've Got a Superstition!

One of the beauties of this little card game we like to play is its blend of science and art.  There's science in figuring odds and probabilities down to the nth degree.  There's art in recognizing how the opponent that you've been playing with for the last few hours is going to respond to a certain situation and how you can act to exploit that response.  The two blend together in the construction of a hand range for an opponent, the mathematical combinations of what he could have, intertwined with the insight in how someone with his psychology will react at each decision point.  Artistic?!  Hell, the game is practically mystical.

Which is just a really flowery way of justifying the fact that in such a mystical setting, I am perfectly entitled to hold a completely irrational and groundless superstition.  I've studied the math of poker.  I've spent hours (to be clear, not actually at the table) analyzing a single decision to calculate the EV down to a fraction of a penny.  I appreciate that the game is grounded in math and logic.  However, I think the game is schizophrenic enough that it will forgive me this dip into the pool of irrationality.  Here we go ...

Imagine a tournament setting where two players are all in.  In accordance with the rules, they flip their hands up.  One player has the other clearly dominated.  AK vs A9, AA vs 66, top pair top kicker vs top pair no kicker.  The dealer gets ready to expose some cards and some yahoo at the table pipes up with, "I folded a (insert miracle card to save dominated player here)."

Kiss.  Of.  Death.

I witnessed a perfect example last night.  About 80 bbs all in preflop.  It's AA vs. QQ.  The flop is three inconsequential cards and as the dealer is preparing to burn and turn, someone observes that he folded AQ.  Now you might think that the invocation of the A would somehow offset the mention of the Q, but you would be wrong.  This is a curse my friend, and curses don't roll like that.  Turn, Queen-ball in the corner pocket.*  Good game sir, and that's that.
  *Since I did not specify which, if any, of the above players was me, this is not technically a bad beat story.

So, I respect that curse of the folded out.  When I know that I have mucked one of the few cards that can save someone, I keep my mouth shut about the fact and I hope that the above public service announcement will assist you in avoiding visiting such horror on someone else ... well, unless they really deserve it.

Now I don't think for a second I'm the only one who holds such superstitions.  So, c'mon everyone, spill.  Tell me about that deep dark superstition you hold at the tables.

12 comments:

  1. when i was a noobi i used to think that backdoor flushes are soo soooo unlikely, if i turned a BD NFD i would fold coz "it aint ever comin amirite?" but now dammmnn i love BD equity when im thinkin of bluffin flop XD

    so that was my superstition but dont hav no mo =(

    Fboy

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    1. So, you're saying you're a backdoor man then Fboy? :)

      Actually, I think you're right about BD equity. If you've got a close call on whether to bluff a flop, I think that having backdoor draws is a good thing to consider when deciding whether to make that bluff.

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  2. Good post. I'm trying to remember any superstitions I have when it comes to poker, and other than not changing seats if I'm doing well, even if I can't see the board, I dunno that I have any. But maybe I'll recall some I've surpressed the next time I play.

    But your story reminds me of the time in a tournament someone short stacked went all against me. I called having him way covered. He showed 66 and I showed KK. Of course, with my history with KK I was already planning my ensuing short-stack strategy. A King came on the flop and someone said, "It's over." The dealer didn't say anything but she kind of shuttered at that comment. Turn was a 6! One card would beat me. Instead, it was the case King, not the case 6.

    The dealer said she was concerned about the guy's comment, knowing there was still a chance for runner,runner to beat me after the flop. But the person who made the comment "it's over" then said he folded a 6, so he knew there was no chance for quad 6's to beat me. The turn 6 made it "interesting" for me since I didn't know that. The guy didn't say anything about the 6 he mucked until after the hand was over and the busted guy was on his way out the door. Perhaps he had the same supertition as you?

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    1. Who knows, maybe it was me? Either way, I appreciate that the man who folded the 6 apparently knew about and respected the curse.

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    2. Nah, it wasn't you or anybody who looked like you. But now that I think about it, did he violate the superstition by saying, "It's over"? Or was it ok as long as he didn't mention a "6".

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    3. Well, I think that's a special situation because he actually knows that another 6 can't come. Therefore, I don't see, "It's Over" as messing with the curse.

      Interesting twist on how to deal with the curse though - it's good to look at these fringe situations away from the table.

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  3. This doesn't qualify for the whole superstition thing, but I used to have the typical new person believe that if the pot was limped and you were in the small blind you should put the extra dollar out and play any two because you are getting "odds."

    Also kind of like the guy who calls a raise with Q4 because he's "getting odds to call with any two" because 5 other people called, then proceeds to lose a huge pot on a QQx flop because the Raiser (or one of the callers) has AQ or KQ or something similar.
    Then blames it all on bad luck "Man, what are the chances that you had the other Q there, that's just horrible luck man. This was a "set up" hand from the beginning"

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    1. Actually when I was playing a lot of 2/4 sometimes you'd get that "family pot" situation where almost everyone limped in. When your the small blind in that situation and there's already 6 or more in, it doesn't make sense not to put in a buck to see the flop. Even with your favorite hand. Oh wait, you'd raise with that!

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    2. Well I'm one who will loosen up significantly in one of those situations in hopes that I hit a miracle hand. However, as you point out, you have to be sensitive for those situations where someone else has hit a bigger miracle.

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  4. that reminds me, sometimes for lolz i would mini raise bb in lollimped pots (not live just online nitmax - really wana be able to do that and maintain poker face though in a live game)

    i haz a lol

    FBoy

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    1. I think the way that works best live is when you raise your junk, hit two pair and then stack someone. Then you can just say that's how you punish the limpers!

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  5. I never like to play out an orbit in cash games, then leave right before the big blind comes. I have lost so much money on the "last hand." Even having this superstition, I played the last hand in my most recent home game cash game. Unfortunately, that hand turned my winning session into a losing session. Sheesh. It happened AGAIN!!

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